2023 All-Star Game, 2022 All-Star Game. 32%. Season. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. NBA news: 538 gives Golden State a 63% chance to win the title. During the NBA season (October to April), you can bet on moneyline, spread, over/under odds, player and game props, and even create parlays with all of these. MLB. Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets . 91 years, though, and the average. Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice and Neil Paine. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. September 18, 2023, 6:09 AM 538 ABC News Photo Illustration Welcome to the new home of 538! Starting today, Sept. The Boston Celtics currently boast the third-best offensive rating in NBA history, 1 and like so many teams in the new, high-scoring NBA, they do it in part by overloading the floor with shooting. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions have gone through quite an evolution over the years. 3 percent) over the past three seasons in field-goal percentage allowed when within 5 feet of both the shooter and the rim. (The best record in NBA history through 20 games for a team that missed the playoffs belonged to the 2010-11 Jazz, who started 15-5. Follow NHL games live and watch odds change in real time. The bottom three teams are relegated. Nov. Senior. 4 ranked 11th among players with at least 200 attempts. m. There is a lot of inside knowledge among NBA experts, as well as a lot of time and money invested into analysis. 20, 2016; 1 p. He sports a better net rating than Mobley and Barnes. The 1969-70 season was a great one for New York basketball. There were 55 guards who ran at least 70 miles in half-court situations this season. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. UPDATE (Oct. The Knicks Peaked A Long Time Ago. How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The West is 43-37 (. The Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, and Los. Schedule. Poole is quick without being fast, a quirk that takes NBA players a long time to master, if they ever do at all. He has allowed just 50. When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance of taking over the Senate from Democrats, and an 87 percent chance of tak…View the 2023-24 Men's College Basketball power index on ESPN. The NBA topped $10 billion in annual revenue for the first time ever in the 2021-22 season. The very first one was pace: “Getting into your offense with 21 or 20 seconds on the shot clock,” Brown said, noting exactly the range where the drop-off has been steepest. The. 182), suggesting RAPTOR is slightly more prognostic. Forecast: How this works ». 35. 4 seed in the Midwest Region and open their 2023 NCAA tournament run at 9:55 p. Before we get into the results of this year’s model. Download this data. Includes box scores, video highlights, play breakdowns and updated odds. Semis. Build An NBA Contender With Our Roster-Shuffling Machine. Andres Waters contributed research. (AP Photo/Matt. At various points in 2022, it has seemed like the NBA might once again belong to the 7-footer. We gave Dallas only a 37 percent chance o… While NBA players have recorded 126 total “star seasons” since 2013-14, only 11 coming off of a star season have been traded before the following season’s trade deadline. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast of 27% means a. 2 Trades for stars. Sign up. Per data provided to FiveThirtyEight by the NBA (as of Feb. 19, 2022 Where FiveThirtyEight And ESPN’s 2022-23 NBA Forecasts Agree — And Disagree By Neil Paine Filed under. Our first iteration simply relied on Elo ratings, the same old standby rating system we’ve used for. Download this data. After Boston dispatched the Philadelphia 76ers in just four games,. 8m. No rookie sits higher in 538’s RAPTOR rankings. Here’s what it looks like:The Raptors were in the NBA's bottom 10 in using soft coverage, although Jakob Poeltl was marked as soft on 55% of the picks he defended in Toronto after the trade deadline. Apr. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. FiveThirtyEight. We created Elo. FiveThirtyEight spoke with more than 25 people across the NBA, from league staffers in charge of data collection and use to front-office executives, to understand exactly how this referee-grading. Circling back to the start of NBA Playoffs and the Lakers, what got me writing was noticing FiveThirtyEight’s divergence from the betting markets in their recent view of the Lakers’ playoff chances. The Celtics are the Eastern Conference champions, and just as Nate Silver’s projections said, they had a 59 per cent chance of winning. The. NBA Finals Odds: Futures Odds for 2023-24 Championship. Toronto appears to believe it has four core players, as each of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby averages between 33. Raiders. Exclusive Offers BLACK FRIDAY DEALS . Why our politics are stuck in 2016 | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. Could a specific role player be the missing piece for a certain squad? Use this team-building tool to tinker with a roster by “trading” and dropping players — with as many teams as you want, free. 26, 125. Catchall wrote:I guarantee you 538 hasn't actually looked at the Jazz. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. The reality: NBA refs are. See FiveThirtyEight’s complete NBA Finals prediction module here. Filed under NBA. FiveThirtyEight has released his March Madness 2023 bracket. NHL 2023/24 results. No Hitter, No Problem. While the NBA. Despite criticisms of the team's offseason moves, the Mavs may have found a better fit for 2022-23. election-forecasts- 2022. How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. They will play in the NBA Finals this week. 2026. They’re the sixth-least-effective pick-and-roll team in the NBA, with lead guard Fred VanVleet ranking 21st in points per chance among 26 players who have run at least 1,500 pick and rolls. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. 9 points per game on 43/35/93 shooting splits in 22. We then run our full NBA forecast with the new lineups to produce updated win totals and playoff probabilities. Jackson led the NBA with a 7. Since leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers (where he admittedly drained one of the most famous buckets in NBA history), Irving has managed 21. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. FiveThirtyEight's 2019 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of. Kansas City Chiefs. The Suns, Bucks and Clippers are all. Ditto Paul George and Kawhi Leonard of the Clippers ranking among this season’s best duos. Just ask Jayson Tatum. FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. SF vs. A. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t. Download this data. Myth No. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. Last year, Minnesota had one of the best offenses in the NBA, leading the league in points per game, and the team also posted a top-10 offensive efficiency rating (114. Bet on sports with live betting odds today! Join the online sports betting action at Bovada Sportsbook and claim your welcome bonus with card or crypto!FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. 193 vs. the NBA, and Major League Baseball matters ranging from the 2011 attendance at the New York Mets' Citi Field to the historic 2011 collapse of the Boston Red Sox. Filed under NBA. The top four teams qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. Lakers 4-1. New articles will appear on ABC News, but our interactives will stay in place. Their forecast, based on RAPTOR player ratings, has the Celtics tied with the Los Angeles Clippers as the fifth-most likely team to win the NBA title with 7% odds. Our lineup includes podcasts like 'First Take', 'Greeny' and 'Keyshawn, JWill & Max'The fraction of African-Americans shrinks as we move up the management chain; 43. m. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice and Neil Paine. Manchester City - RB Leipzig. ) and bad opponents (negative overall. role estimated +/-efficiency location rebs handle defense; player gp mpg usg off defThe 2023 NBA draft, the 77th edition of the National Basketball Association's annual draft, was held on June 22, 2023, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. +2. Lopez ranked seventh (52. Silver told FiveThirtyEight. Design and development by Jay Boice. GOLF. 107. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. The Milwaukee Bucks and the Denver Nuggets are in second and third place with +425 and +475 odds, respectively. The top nine teams from each conference — 18 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. Voter fatigue is a real thing, and heading into the 2022-23 NBA season, few prognosticators thought JokiÄÐ â ¡ could be even better than he was in his first two award-winning seasons. The elo rating had problems to interpred games of NBA teams which where save in the playoffs an may conserving energy for important games weeks later. Season. Injury icons are an approximation of the share of minutes that a player. 4% from the 3-point line. How this works. 3). 2023 NBA Playoffs, 2022 NBA Playoffs, 2021 NBA Playoffs, 2020 NBA Playoffs, 2019 NBA Playoffs, 2018 NBA Playoffs, 2017 NBA Playoffs, Playoffs Series History. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft led a game-winning drive to lift the. 07030. In the last row of the table, we see that the overall accuracy of FiveThirtyEight’s model is 76%, the same as the overall accuracy of our baseline model! The two models correctly predicted the same number of series in every season, except in 2017 and 2019, when they were off by one. At 12th on the list of NBA Finals scoring,. Lopez played in 78 games last season and averaged 15. 064). The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is. But over the next month. Democrats win. 27. 2 percent during his 56 games with the Suns prior to the trade (and to 24. 78dMike Clay. Five Thirty-Eight sometimes referred to as 538, focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. To arrive at our FiveThirtyEight power ratings, which are a measure of teams’ current strength on a neutral court and are displayed on our March Madness predictions interactive graphic, we make. +1. Brandin Podziemski. But it was also among. Nate Silver is estimating each team’s chance of advancing to any given stage of the N. The Lakers are 11-1 in the latest 2024 NBA Finals odds, sitting well behind the top tier of 2023-24 NBA contenders. Nov. Win Rates. The top two teams are automatically promoted, and a third is promoted through a four-team playoff. Harry Joe Enten (born March 1, 1988) is an American journalist known for his former role as a senior political writer and analyst for the website FiveThirtyEight and his current job as a senior writer and analyst for CNN Politics. 0), Ray Allen (No. The expectation that Kevin Durant will return in some capacity this week, even if in reduced minutes, was worth 1. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. NBA players, like MLB players, improve on average through about age 27 and then. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and. Forecasts from Aug. The Los Angeles Clippers rose six spots in the rankings from two weeks ago. 19, 2023 How Mikal Bridges Went From Supporting Player To Star By Jared Dubin Filed under NBA Playoffs Apr. Teams . Ditto Paul George and Kawhi Leonard of the Clippers ranking among this season’s best duos. Players. How this works: When a trade is made, our model updates the rosters of the teams involved and reallocates the number of minutes each player is expected to play. 9 points, 6. 0. 26, 125. We use numbers to express uncertainty. 2015-16 NBA Predictions. Galen Druke speaks with American politics professor Lynn Vavreck about how our electoral politics seem frozen in time. Download this data. NFL History. During and after the Golden State Warriors’ equalizer against the Boston Celtics in Sunday’s Game 2 of the NBA Finals, it was the non-basketball stuff that gained attention. comFiveThirtyEight's global club soccer rankings compare hundreds of men's soccer teams across dozens of leaguesCrafted NBA . With so little separating such a large number of teams in the Western Conference, a surprise result here or there has the potential to completely. The top four teams qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League. RAPTOR is dead. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA player projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history to determine what a current NBA player’s future might look like. Download this data. 7 percent of shots to be converted when. The tendency for FiveThirtyEight to overweight home court advantage is clear here, as the y-intercept is negative for both algorithms. Elo ratings above 1800, which imply a team would be able to sustain at least a 67-15 record over the long term, are extremely rare. 0. But It’s Not Kyrie Irving’s Fault. Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry celebrate winning their fourth NBA title together. The NBA regular season ends Wednesday, and the playoffs begin Saturday. The bottom three teams are relegated. 2. FanDuel is the leader in one-day fantasy sports for money with immediate cash payouts, no commitment and leagues from $1CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS FOR 2023-24 NBA SEASON*: Boston Celtics: +390 (bet $10 to win $49 total) Milwaukee Bucks: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total) Denver Nuggets: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total) Phoenix. They're also the NBA title favorite at many sportsbooks. See new Tweets. How this works. Just in time for the NBA’s free agent bonanza (headlined by LeBron James’s The Decision: Part III ), FiveThirtyEight has re-launched CARMELO. 40%. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, shoots, school and more on Basketball-Reference. The Republican Path To A House Majority Goes Through The Suburbs. 500 at any point during that season, let alone as late in the year. April 1, 2023 July 1 Oct. Boston has outscored opponents by 10. A single-player basketball simulation game. At the Las Vegas G League Showcase in December, the league went a step. 5 wins at DraftKings, down one win from their opener in the summer. Download this data. -- Pelton. 2. See the latest forecasts for the 2020-21 NBA playoffs based on RAPTOR player ratings and Elo ratings. 2023-24 NBA Player Contracts. Forecasts from Aug. Y. This Lakers Season Was A Trainwreck — And There’s No Easy Way To Get Back On Track. Memphis Grizzlies NBA game from November 24, 2023 on ESPN. 11, 2023 No Play-In Team Has. 0), Ray Allen (No. Republicans win. FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. Visit ESPN for NBA live scores, video highlights and latest news. The NBA trade deadline has come and gone, and it was quite a doozy. The site has also posted. Twice recently, Mike was nominated for Basketball. The NBA playoffs are almost here, with the play-in tournament tipping off later tonight. 162), ending. The NBA has undergone dramatic and rapid evolution in the past few years, resulting in 2021-22 recording the second-highest offensive rating since the stat was first calculated in 1973-74. A 76ers fan who wants to bet Philadelphia to win the NBA Finals might get 10-to-1 odds before the season. Mitchell Leff / Getty ImagesBut the women’s tourney was a bit more predictable. Apr. The favorites: Obviously, the Warriors are big favorites to win the West for a fifth straight season, with a 61 percent chance of returning to the NBA Finals yet again. (Or maybe it just hates the Golden State Warriors. Miami’s saving grace? It so seldom. 18 with a TNT doubleheader as the 76ers visit the Celtics and the defending champion Warriors host the Lakers. Bontemps: Because of everything that has happened around Jimmy Butler the past couple of years, people forget just how good he is. IntroductionEnd-of-year NBA awards are a good lens through which to evaluate the league’s best performances, but the framing isn’t always quite right. Going into the playoffs, our NBA model wasn’t particularly high on the Dallas Mavericks’ chances of making a deep run. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Updated after every game. Daily and seasonal predictions are made based on the site's very own analytics model. NBA. 15-67. Includes box scores, video highlights, play breakdowns and updated odds. 91 (10% JUICE) It's not uncommon to see other values posted other than -10. Just in time for the NBA’s free agent bonanza (headlined by LeBron James’s The Decision: Part III ), FiveThirtyEight has re-launched CARMELO. james. Now it's. 803. Help came from all corners to beat the Nuggets on a night when their superstar, Nikola. NBA play-in possible matchups Western Conference. Examples seen on the NBA Vegas Odds pages could include -08 , -12 , -15 and -20. The play could have been a turning point. 9. Signed 5-yr/$215M contract July 7, 2022. Things were a little less smooth after that: New York went 37-21 to close out the regular. 5 assists and 1. Players. jackson: Per NBA Advanced Stats, Golden State’s most-used playoff unit has been Curry, Thompson, Green, Wiggins and Looney, sporting a net rating of +17. 35. We then run our full NBA forecast with the new lineups to produce updated win totals and playoff probabilities. Statistical model by Nate Silver. Sure enough, if you visit FiveThirtyEight, all of their forecasts are off the homepage. 17. And it’s no shock to see Lakers superstar Anthony Davis in RAPTOR’s top 10. The Hawks, T-Wolves And Knicks Made Moves With Clear Upsides — And Downsides. )Nate Silver@natesilver538. The 2019 NBA Draft Class Is Short (By Basketball Standards) FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. It's literally a computer running statistical models, so yes it hasn't looked at anything. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. Statistical models by Nate Silver and Jay Boice. 538 NBA Predictions for the 2022-2023 Season - Week 1. Everton - Manchester United. 4762% of the time. 16. The very first one was pace: “Getting into your offense with 21 or 20 seconds on the shot clock,” Brown said, noting exactly the range where the drop-off has been steepest. Raptors coach Nick Nurse. For the fourth time in eight seasons, the Golden State Warriors are NBA champions. Visit ESPN for Memphis Grizzlies live scores, video highlights, and latest news. September 18, 2023, 9:09 AM. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Champ. UPDATED Nov. 6 points per 100 possessions with White on the floor this season, per NBA Advanced Stats, tied with Robert Williams III for the best mark on the team. 0. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics ), basketball, and elections (see psephology ). 26, 2022, at 11:45 AM. After a whirlwind offseason that saw massive trades, free agency and the NBA draft take place within a week's span, rosters are mostly settled with opening night just three weeks away. 21, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60. If the opposing team’s pitcher (s) throws a no-hitter, your money-line bet will be refunded up to $50. 11, 2023 Our New Live In-Game Win. FiveThirtyEight's 2022-23 NHL forecast predicts the winner of each hockey game and calculates each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup. FiveThirtyEight. Each dot represents a potential electoral outcome. Manchester City - Liverpool. Hot Takedown. That figure falls to 1. This forecast is based on 20,000 simulations of the tournament and updates live. -0. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 2: “Refs aren’t held accountable for errors!”. . Most of the NBA’s 30 teams will elevate at least one coach into a new role as well. Live scores for every 2023-24 NBA season game on ESPN. This one is a straight-up falsehood, sadly perpetuated by some media members in addition to casual fans. ESTIMATE. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. By Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Nate Silver. 2016-17 NBA Predictions Based on “CARM-Elo,” a mix of team Elo ratings and our CARMELO player projections. Here at FiveThirtyEight HQ, we’ve been pretty excited about the upcoming 2015-16 NBA season. A metric called RAPTOR loves the Raptors — shocking! ‘Tis the season for NBA prognosticating, with the league returning to the court for 2022-23 on Tuesday night. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Brentford - Arsenal. Elliott Morris. * FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player‘s future performance. 9 billion in basketball-related earnings. bracket. So the average NBA season has included 5. 5) are currently tied for the highest projection in the league, while oddsmakers have pegged the Washington Wizards (23. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT. For most players, holding the ball and dribbling for long periods of time does not lead to points. The love affair with the Boston Celtics continues at FiveThirtyEight as the data wizards at the site who projected the Celtics the most likely winner of the 2020 NBA Championship consider All-Star swingman Jayson Tatum the best postseason player in the league. They will have their work cut out for them here as this is certainly a talented defensive Celtics backcourt with Derrick White, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown leading. Per data provided to FiveThirtyEight by the NBA (as of Feb. 9. . NBA Player Earnings An up-to-date look at the value rankings of all active NBA players based on a mathematical comparison of their current salary against their cumulative "production points". Final Four 4. ): Our 2016-17 NBA Predictions follow the same methodology as our predictions from last year. Republicans win. 467 points per possession coming off of these live-ball turnovers would have ranked second in the NBA during the regular season, according to Second Spectrum. 7 contenders, with a high of eight reached in both 2007-08 and 2020-21. PSG - Newcastle United. The Beam Team put an end to. 2M contract July 6, 2023. ET, ABC).